What does this really mean?

[Daniel]

I just read an interesting article that has far reaching implications. Whitman has just hosted their last Philadelphia coin show. Now for those of you who don't see how important this is then think closely about who Whitman is.

It's a name is a huge part of numismatics and without that name we wouldn't have the Red Book as we know it. If Whitman can't get a coin show going successfully in Philadelphia then what does this imply?

Read the article and tell me what you think http://www.coinweek.com/market-reports/ ... coin-show/

It sounds like the collectors of Philadelphia don't want to pay the high BV values for coins. So is the BV to high? Were these dealers expecting huge profits at the show that they couldn't realize? I think it's a resounding yes, but will let you decide.

[mhonzell]

I have not been collecting coins for very long, maybe 10 years, and then, only a couple of particular types of coins. In that time, I have seen a dramatic shift, especially in the last year from a numismatic idea of coin collecting to purely speculatory.

I actually noticed it first on eBay where prices jumped from "book" values to 2x, 3x or even 10x "book" value. The sellers have taken a hobby and turned it into a form of the stock market. That market is nearly at the pop point. Question is: What does a crash in a "hobby" market look like?

I know for me, the days of looking at the coin and considering how badly do I want it are over. I look at the "book" value, history of sales, population reports and THEN, I look at the price being asked (not the coin or slab.) If the coin is more than 2x the "book" value, I simply move on. I know based on other markets, the bubble will pop and prices will come back down. The coins will still be there and when reality kicks back in, I start collecting again.

In the meantime, I've moved to ancient coins and cleaning them. Very enjoyable at only $5 - $10 per coin. I've managed to find a number of treasures. But, even this market is strongly corrupted by the speculation groups.

[Daniel]

This is what PAHL refers to as the "flippers", they buy choice coins at shows and from online auctions, then list them on ebay for more than they paid, in hopes the choice aspect will bring them more money. It's also a psychological game that you put a higher price on a coin to make it look more valuable or appealing to those you spend a bunch of cash on choice coins, and gives the dealer or seller the appearance of being a high end dealer to their customers.

[mhonzell]

:agree:

But, in regards to the article, I think it has gone too far. Buyers are not fooled or agreeing with the sellers anymore and they are still not getting the message. So, the buyers are no longer participating. Well, except wholesalers.

[Paul]

One thing I have to add.
The on-line 'auction' sales like EBAY, are so heavily 'shill bid', some coins sell for WAY, WAY, WAY, OUT OF CONTROL PRICES.
These guys know how to 'test you' as the auction goes on, when they know your :h , the sky's the limit.
They have several accounts, & bid up their own items,...which is ok with ebay, of course, the higher it sells, the more $ it makes them.
&, since it's all a, 'follow the leader' bidding site....lotsa bids makes lotsa interest. I'm sure you have seen 'NON-VARIETY' regular coins (variety too) sell for crazy stupid prices to a low feedback # buyer.....because they have NO IDEA that this is happening to them!
You need to check the other current 'bidders feedback'. Here is just 1 small RAMDOM example. See 100% of his bids are on just this 1 seller...............
And if you look closely at the other current 'auctions' from these sellers, that same ID, will be bidding on most of his items. They are very good at 'mixing it up' here, using several different accounts, to bid on different items for sale....tricky, sneeky.....but, IS THE OLDEST AUCTION TRICK IN THE BOOK!
CHECK IT OUT...YOU WILL SEE SOME VERY INTERESTING GOING-ON'S

[mhonzell]

Thanks, will do.

I'm usually more put off by the seller using Buy It Now and wants 250% (or more) of "book" value, or PCGS/NGC value. Yes, it's a nice coin... yes, it has wonderful red on that coin graded as Red-Brown and I might be willing to offer 10% more than the book value if Heritage Auctions hadn't shown me you bought that coin for 50% of book value. But, 250%... Good luck!

I think I tick them off when I post an Offer (for those that allow it) at the book value and then post my little message above on the Counter-Offer that's only 220% over actual value. I understand shipping costs, eBay fees, storage, etc. It's called Buyer's Premium. BUT, he bought it for 50% of book value and wants to charge me 10x that price.

Absurd. Why would I go to a coin show that uses the same concepts when selling their coins?

[Daniel]

You also have dealers who do everything they can so you will sell them your coins, even paying too much to beat out the next coin dealer, so they just up what they sell it for. When your supply is too large a part of the demand then it gets lopsided.

[mhonzell]

I tried to look up this Bid History: Details on myself and couldn't seem to find the function. Just wondering how I look compared to the one above.

[Paul]

I often find 'PRIME FOCAL AREAS' that have a bing, ding, whack, nick.......that they have EXPERTLY photoshopped, or image manipulated out (blurred, smeared)....that you can see very clearly in the hi-resolution images posted on the auction/sale where they bought it from... :s

But most quick flip sellers just list a 'FULL SLAB ONLY' listing pic with no real good 'close-up' of the coin itself......knowing the average buyer will just look at the 'label' only in the buying decision.

[mhonzell]

But most quick flip sellers just list a 'FULL SLAB ONLY' listing pic with no real good 'close-up' of the coin itself......knowing the average buyer will just look at the 'label' only in the buying decision.

And, when you ask for a picture of the coin, and not the slab, they answer with... "I trust the TPG". If you try to explain you collect coins, not slabs, they get upset.

[Paul]

I always get:
You don't have to worry,...."THIS IS A 'PROFESSIONALLY' GRADED COIN". :ebay:

[dipper13]

When auctions were live and in person, the sellers would bring in "ringers" to up their bids, and sometimes the ringer would get the item to make him look legit. Usually that would be an inexpensive item. When these guys would get caught and they all got caught, it would get ugly. I attended an antique auction in rural Southern N.J. years ago. That auction was the most entertainment I ever had for free. Folks do not take kindly to being fleeced.
I attended the Whitman show last week. I dropped off coins to get graded. The place looked like a funeral parlor. Dan

[mhonzell]

What I don't understand is the sellers not getting the message. Oh, well. I suppose that's a good thing as this should bring some prices back down to reality as demand diminishes.

[Daniel]

To be realistic their Boston show is still going and they claim is successful, but I know that collectors, as they learn are turning more to sites like ebay. You can just get better deals, but you have to be a little more careful.